Measuring SEO Performance After "Not Provided"

In recent years, the biggest change to the search landscape happened when Google chose to withhold keyword data from webmasters. At SEOBook, Aaron noticed and wrote about the change, as evermore keyword data disappeared.

The motivation to withold this data, according to Google, was privacy concerns:

SSL encryption on the web has been growing by leaps and bounds. As part of our commitment to provide a more secure online experience, today we announced that SSL Search on https://www.google.com will become the default experience for signed in users on google.com.

At first, Google suggested it would only affect a single-digit percentage of search referral data:

Google software engineer Matt Cutts, who’s been involved with the privacy changes, wouldn’t give an exact figure but told me he estimated even at full roll-out, this would still be in the single-digit percentages of all Google searchers on Google.com

...which didn't turn out to be the case. It now affects almost all keyword referral data from Google.

Was it all about privacy? Another rocket over the SEO bows? Bit of both? Probably. In any case, the search landscape was irrevocably changed. Instead of being shown the keyword term the searcher had used to find a page, webmasters were given the less than helpful “not provided”. This change rocked SEO. The SEO world, up until that point, had been built on keywords. SEOs choose a keyword. They rank for the keyword. They track click-thrus against this keyword. This is how many SEOs proved their worth to clients.

These days, very little keyword data is available from Google. There certainly isn’t enough to keyword data to use as a primary form of measurement.

Rethinking Measurement

This change forced a rethink about measurement, and SEO in general. Whilst there is still some keyword data available from the likes of Webmaster Tools & the AdWords paid versus organic report, keyword-based SEO tracking approaches are unlikely to align with Google’s future plans. As we saw with the Hummingbird algorithm, Google is moving towards searcher-intent based search, as opposed to keyword-matched results.

Hummingbird should better focus on the meaning behind the words. It may better understand the actual location of your home, if you’ve shared that with Google. It might understand that “place” means you want a brick-and-mortar store. It might get that “iPhone 5s” is a particular type of electronic device carried by certain stores. Knowing all these meanings may help Google go beyond just finding pages with matching words

The search bar is still keyword based, but Google is also trying to figure out what user intent lays behind the keyword. To do this, they’re relying on context data. For example, they look at what previous searches has the user made, their location, they are breaking down the query itself, and so on, all of which can change the search results the user sees.

When SEO started, it was in an environment where the keyword the user typed into a search bar was exact matching that with a keyword that appears on a page. This is what relevance meant. SEO continued with this model, but it’s fast becoming redundant, because Google is increasingly relying on context in order to determine searcher intent & while filtering many results which were too aligned with the old strategy. Much SEO has shifted from keywords to wider digital marketing considerations, such as what the visitor does next, as a result.

We’ve Still Got Great Data

Okay, if SEO’s don’t have keywords, what can they use?

If we step back a bit, what we’re really trying to do with measurement is demonstrate value. Value of search vs other channels, and value of specific search campaigns. Did our search campaigns meet our marketing goals and thus provide value?

Do we have enough data to demonstrate value? Yes, we do. Here are a few ideas SEOs have devised to look at the organic search data they are getting, and they use it to demonstrate value.

1. Organic Search VS Other Activity

If our organic search tracking well when compared with other digital marketing channels, such as social or email? About the same? Falling?

In many ways, the withholding of keyword data can be a blessing, especially to those SEOs who have a few ranking-obsessed clients. A ranking, in itself is worthless, especially if it’s generating no traffic.

Instead, if we look at the total amount of organic traffic, and see that it is rising, then we shouldn’t really care too much about what keywords it is coming from. We can also track organic searches across device, such as desktop vs mobile, and get some insight into how best to optimize those channels for search as a whole, rather than by keyword. It’s important that the traffic came from organic search, rather than from other campaigns. It’s important that the visitors saw your site. And it’s important what that traffic does next.

2. Bounce Rate

If a visitor comes in, doesn’t like what is on offer, and clicks back, then that won’t help rankings. Google have been a little oblique on this point, saying they aren’t measuring bounce rate, but I suspect it’s a little more nuanced, in practice. If people are failing to engage, then anecdotal evidence suggests this does affect rankings.

Look at the behavioral metrics in GA; if your content has 50% of people spending less than 10 seconds, that may be a problem or that may be normal. The key is to look below that top graph and see if you have a bell curve or if the next largest segment is the 11-30 second crowd.

Either way, we must encourage visitor engagement. Even small improvements in terms of engagement can mean big changes in the bottom line. Getting visitors to a site was only ever the first step in a long chain. It’s what they do next that really makes or breaks a web business, unless the entire goal was that the visitor should only view the landing page. Few sites, these days, would get much return on non-engagement.

PPCers are naturally obsessed with this metric, because each click is costing them money, but when you think about it, it’s costing SEOs money, too. Clicks are getting harder and harder to get, and each click does have a cost associated with it i.e. the total cost of the SEO campaign divided by the number of clicks, so each click needs to be treated as a cost.

3. Landing Pages
We can still do landing page analysis. We can see the pages where visitors are entering the website. We can also see which pages are most popular, and we can tell from the topic of the page what type of keywords people are using to find it.

We could add more related keyword to these pages and see how they do, or create more pages on similar themes, using different keyword terms, and then monitor the response. Similarly, we can look at poorly performing pages and make the assumption these are not ranking against intended keywords, and mark these for improvement or deletion.

We can see how old pages vs new pages are performing in organic search. How quickly do new pages get traffic?

We’re still getting a lot of actionable data, and still not one keyword in sight.

4. Visitor And Customer Acquisition Value

We can still calculate the value to the business of an organic visitor.

We can also look at what step in the process are organic visitors converting. Early? Late? Why? Is there some content on the site that is leading them to convert better than other content? We can still determine if organic search provided a last click-conversion, or a conversion as the result of a mix of channels, where organic played a part. We can do all of this from aggregated organic search data, with no need to look at keywords.

5. Contrast With PPC

We can contrast Adwords data back against organic search. Trends we see in PPC might also be working in organic search.

For AdWords our life is made infinitesimally easier because by linking your AdWords account to your Analytics account rich AdWords data shows up automagically allowing you to have an end-to-end view of campaign performance.

Even PPC-ers are having to change their game around keywords:

The silver lining in all this? With voice an mobile search, you’ll likely catch those conversions that you hadn’t before. While you may think that you have everything figured out and that your campaigns are optimal, this matching will force you into deeper dives that hopefully uncover profitable PPC pockets.

6. Benchmark Against Everything

In the above section I highlighted comparing organic search to AdWords performance, but you can benchmark against almost any form of data.

Is 90% of your keyword data (not provided)? Then you can look at the 10% which is provided to estimate performance on the other 90% of the traffic. If you get 1,000 monthly keyword visits for [widgets], then as a rough rule of thumb you might get roughly 9,000 monthly visits for that same keyword shown as (not provided).

Has your search traffic gone up or down over the past few years? Are there seasonal patterns that drive user behavior? How important is the mobile shift in your market? What landing pages have performed the best over time and which have fallen hardest?

How is your site's aggregate keyword ranking profile compared to top competitors? Even if you don't have all the individual keyword referral data from search engines, seeing the aggregate footprints, and how they change over time, indicates who is doing better and who gaining exposure vs losing it.

Numerous competitive research tools like SEM Rush, SpyFu & SearchMetrics provide access to that type of data.

You can also go further with other competitive research tools which look beyond the search channel. Is most of your traffic driven from organic search? Do your competitors do more with other channels? A number of sites like Compete.com and Alexa have provided estimates for this sort of data. Another newer entrant into this market is SimilarWeb.

And, finally, rank checking still has some value. While rank tracking may seem futile in the age of search personalization and Hummingbird, it can still help you isolate performance issues during algorithm updates. There are a wide variety of options from browser plugins to desktop software to hosted solutions.

By now, I hope I’ve convinced you that specific keyword data isn’t necessary and, in some case, may have only served to distract some SEOs from seeing other valuable marketing metrics, such as what happens after the click and where do they go next.

So long as the organic search traffic is doing what we want it to, we know which pages it is coming in on, and can track what it does next, there is plenty of data there to keep us busy. Lack of keyword data is a pain, but in response, many SEOs are optimizing for a lot more than keywords, and focusing more on broader marketing concerns.

Further Reading & Sources:

Keyword Research Plus

If we’re targeting keywords, getting good traffic as a result, but not converting as much traffic as we’d like, then it might be due to a market validation problem.

Basic keyword research typically involves looking at the nature of the web site, creating a list of terms that describe the offers being made, expanding the keyword list out using keyword research tools, and then targeting those keyword terms.

However, if that’s all a search marketer does, and fails to get conversions and engagement as a result, then they might be asking the wrong questions.

Asking The Right Questions

Consider Coca-Cola.

Coca Cola undertook extensive market testing and research before they introduced “New Coke”, yet New Coke failed miserably. Their competitors, Pepsi, used a blind taste test, asking people if they preferred Coke or Pepsi. Coca Cola ran their own testing, and the results were not good. The majority preferred Pepsi.

However, the problem in asking people to take just one sip and compare was to ask the wrong question. People may have preferred the first sip of Pepsi, but they preferred the less sweet Coke when they consumed an entire glass. In “Inside Coca-Cola: A CEO's Life Story of Building the World's Most Popular Brand”, Neville Isdell also postulates that new coke failed because original coke was about the iconic. It was linked to history. It wasn’t just about the taste of the first sip, it was also about the place of Coke in culture. There was a lot more to it than the first, sugary hit.

Coca Cola asked the wrong questions. Getting the context right was important if they were to understand the answers.

If you’ve designed relevant landing pages but not getting the conversion rate you desire, no matter how much split/run testing you do, or if you’ve managed to rank #1 for your chosen term, and you’ve written some great copy, but the traffic just keeps bouncing away, then it might be a problem with positioning in the market.

These market validation ideas apply mostly to search marketers who build their own sites, but it’s also applicable to marketers working on client sites if those client sites have poor targeting. Bolting on search marketing won’t do much good if a site is making substandard, or redundant offers.

Market Validation

“Market Validation” was a concept defined by Rob Adams in his book “If You Build It They Will Come”. It’s the process of figuring out if a market exists before you go to the expense and time of filling that market. Market validation is typically used by entrepreneurs in order to determine if they should enter a market, however the more general aspects can also be applied to search marketing.

Two aspects that are particularly useful for search marketers, especially those marketers who care what happens after the click, is a market analysis - to determine what stage in the market the business is at - and a competitive analysis. Armed with this information, they’ll know how to best pitch the offer, which, when combined with effective copywriting and calls to action should increase engagement and conversion.

Market Stage

Entrepreneurs are concerned with the growth rate of a market sector.

Typically, entrepreneurs want to get into fast rising, new markets, as opposed to mature or sunset markets. It’s difficult for new entrants to compete with incumbents, as doing so involves high costs. It is estimated that the cost of taking a customer off a competitor is typically three to ten times the cost of acquiring a new customer.

Try to figure out the stage of growth of the market. If the site operates in a mature market, with multiple competitors, then aspects such as price and features are important. In a mature market, the site you’re working with should be competitive on these aspects, else a top ranking position and compelling copy won’t help much, as the buyer will likely be comparing offers.

Similarly, if the client is competitive in these areas, then it pays to push these aspects hard in your copy and calls to action. For example, if a mobile phone site focused, first and foremost, on buyer education, it probably won’t do as well as a site that focuses on price and features. Generally speaking, buyers in this mature market sector don’t need to be educated on the merits of a mobile phone. They’re probably mainly interested in looks, availability, price and features.

If your client is in a fast growing new market, then there’s typically a lot more buyer education involved. People need to be convinced of new offers, so consider making your copy more education focused in these niches.

For example, when the iPhone came out, it didn’t have any direct competition. Apple didn’t need to push hard on price or features - there were cheaper phones, and there were phones that could do some things better, but there was nothing directly comparable in the smartphone market. Only recently, now that the market has matured, are Apple focusing on price with the introduction of lower priced entry level phones. This is a characteristic of more mature markets with high levels of competition and price pressure.

Here’s an example of mobile phone makers targeting a submarket of a mature market, differentiated by age:

Since mobile phone penetration has reached almost saturation levels in Europe and the United Kingdom, mobile service providers are focusing attention on the 55–65 and 65-plus segment to improve usage and penetration. Their high disposable incomes and their ability to devote time to new habits are seen as a lucrative market opportunity. 5 At the other end of the demographic scale, Red Bull has built a following among youth worldwide.

Identify what stage the business is at, and adjust your approach based on the strengths or weaknesses of that market.

Market Segment

The more specific the keyword, the more the keyword is likely to identify subcategories within broader markets. For example, a travel agent could target a general term like “hotels in Spain”, or the more specific “luxury hotels in Marbella”.

Look for competitive strengths a business may have in a submarket and consider focusing search marketing efforts in these areas first. An easy-win builds confidence. Is this submarket fast-growing? Even better. Build both confidence and revenue. It may lead to more of the business being refocused around these submarkets.

Are there some submarkets that have decent keyword volume, but they’re mature? Ensure that you have some competitive advantage in terms of pricing and features before devoting too much time targeting them.

Even if the traffic isn't particularly high in some submarkets, at very least you’ll have earned the engagement metrics Google likes to see, and likely built some brand reputation in these submarkets that can then be leveraged into other submarkets.

Lifecycles

Determine the audience in term of product lifecycle.

Are you targeting keyword areas relating to new products? If so, you’re most likely talking to early adopters. Therefore, the pitch is likely to involve aspects such as education, being first, desirability, being forward-thinking, and standing out from the crowd. The pitch is less likely to focus on negating buyer risk.

If you’re dealing with a business later in the lifecycle, then you’ll likely be talking more about price and comparing and differentiating features.

Competitive Analysis

Competitive analysis is perhaps the most important, yet often overlooked, aspect of SEO/PPC.

Top rankings can be a waste of time if direct competitors are more competitive on features, price, service and brand recognition. Buyers will compare these aspects clicking from link to link, or will use third-party comparison sites, a sure signal of a mature market.

Find out what competitors are doing. And what they’re not doing. Try creating a competitive matrix:

A competitive matrix is an analysis tool that helps you establish your company's competitive advantage. It provides an easy-to-read portrait of your competitive landscape and your position in the marketplace. The matrix can be just a simple chart. In the left column, you list the main features and benefits of your product or service. On the top row, you list your company and the names of your competitors. Then fill in the chart with the appropriate information for each company. For example, if you own a dry cleaning service, you might list the different services you offer or the quick turnaround you provide on items (24 hours), and then note how your competitors fail at these features.

If there are competitors, then obviously a market exists. Compare your competitors against as many keyword terms as possible, and see how well they’re doing in each keyword area. Not just in terms of ranking, but in terms of their offer and the maturity of the market. If there are numerous competitors gunning for the same keyword terms, then determine if your offer is strong enough that should you beat their rankings, you can still stand up to a side-by-side feature, service and price comparison. Is there a submarket in which they are weak? Would you be better off devoting your time and energy to this submarket?

Examine their pitch. In any competitive niche, the pitch made by those occupying the top three spots in Adwords over time is likely to be the most relevant to the audience. If their pitch wasn’t relevant, it’s unlikely they could remain in those positions, due to quality score metrics, and the financial strength to keep outbidding competitors. There are exceptions i.e. competitors running losses for some reason, but generally, it’s safe to assume they’re doing something right.

Are they talking price? Features? Are they using video? Are they using long copy? Are they using people in their photographs? How big is their text? What’s the path to ordering? Do they highlight a phone number, or do they bury it? Pull their offer, and presentation of that offer, apart.

Make a note of everything the top three or four sites Adwords sites are doing and then emulate the commonalities. This gives you a strong baseline for further experimentation, testing and positioning on the SEO side. Keep in mind it’s not good enough to beat these competitors by a small margin. Incumbents often have brand awareness and customer bases (high trust levels), so to counter that, your should be considerably better. A “better offer” can mean superior price or features, but it can also be better service levels, a more specific solution, or a fresh new angle on an existing solution.

Also consider substitutions.

If a buyer can substitute a product or service, then this offers a potential opportunity. For example, lets say a buyer has a transportation problem. They could buy a car to solve that problem. Or, they could lease a car on a pay-per-drive model. The pay-per-drive model is a substitution threat for car sellers. If you take a step back and determine what problem the visitor trying to solve, as opposed to leaping to conclusions about the obvious keyword that describes that solution, then you might find rich, unmined substitution keywords. Perhaps your offer can be repackaged slightly differently in order to mine a substitution keyword stream.

Of course, people don’t always buy on price and features, even if the market is mature, but they still need a compelling value proposition. One example is organic produce. It’s typically more expensive, and the “features” are the same, but the context is different. The produce is sold on environmental values.

So look for value propositions that customers might respond to, but competitors aren’t taking advantage of. Or you can extend the ones they use. Now that Google is coming from behind with their own Motorola phones they are extending Apple's designed in California with made in America.

Summary

There are many links on the page a searcher can click. The more mature the market, the more relevant search results they’re likely to encounter, and those results, both PPC and natural search are likely to match their intent. At that point, getting the offer right is important. If you can’t compete in terms of offer, try looking for submarkets and position there, instead.

I hope this article has given you some new angles to explore. A good reference book on the topic of market validation, and the inspiration for this article, is “If You Build It They Will Come”, by Rob Adams.

Oh, The Opportunity

I'm doing keyword research.

The opportunities I see before me still amaze me.

Keyword lists, showing the frequency of searches, are market research nirvana. It's like being a god, delving deep into the minds of mortals.

And most people outside SEO. Still. Don't. Get. It.

Ever explained keywords to people, and received blank looks in return?

We can trawl through a keyword research tool and list thousands of niche business opportunities. Demand is on display. It is being broadcast to us.

Once we discover demand, we measure the competition, quantify the opportunity, build a site, and dive into the demand streams that have existed long before the internet was invented.

Demand, meet supply.

Just look at all this demand:

  • "japanese translation" 450,000 Monthly searches
  • "hospital jobs" 823,000 Monthly searches
  • "forklift certification" 27,100 Monthly searches
  • "address labels" 301,000 Monthly searches
  • "digital signage" 201,000 Monthly searches
  • "student credit cards" 135,000 Monthly searches
  • "coin collecting" 60,500 Monthly searches

And as we know, that's just ONE keyword per niche. The real gems can be found deeper into the long tail of associations, permeations, and similarities.

The search channel still amazes me.

It's so powerful, and so under-rated.

Mad Men

Have you seen Mad Men?

If you haven't, it's a great show about an advertising agency, set in the 1960's. The ad executives were the rockstars of the time, paid well to know what was on the minds of consumers.

What would they have made of a keyword research tool, I wonder?

Or our digital zeitgeist?

And unlike fifty years ago, there are fewer barriers to entry to many traditional markets. In the past, in order to compete-nation wide, or internationally, a huge, multinational machine, of people and capital, was needed. Now, with a credit card, we just tap into a vast network in an instant.

Fifty years ago, publishing a book was difficult and expensive. A large publishing company could get shelf space at a major retail outlet, but you couldn't. Probably still can't. You needed to print many copies, a risk and cost out of reach of most people. A publisher could reach out to reviewers, and work the publicity machines.

Now we can compete.

We can get more far more reach, in in much less time, for a fraction of the cost.

So many niches, so little time.

So, what are you going to do today?

Keyword Research Resources

Google Keyword Research Tool: Not Popular

At a recent SMX conference, Baris Gultekin, Group Product Manager for Google AdWords, put the cat amongst the pigeons when he said the Google Keyword Tool only provides keyword data for the terms Google deems “commercial".

Teething problems? New policy? Bit of both? Regardless, it's fair to say there has been a backlash against the changes made to the keyword tool.

For example, Marty Weintraub points out:

“Facebook” Must Not Be “Commercial” Do Google users really only articulate 12 semantic permutations of “Facebook” at phrase, broad and exact match? Eeesh… Obviously that’s a laughable proposition. These 12 keywords are what Google wants to sell as they productize Facebook related queries into AdWords inventory"

Google's Business

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Google is only showing webmasters what it wants webmasters to see. Google will show data that works to Google's advantage.

There's no advantage to Google in revealing all their keyword data - a valuable asset - especially the data that Google thinks can't be monetized as profitably via Adwords. Adwords research is, after all, what the Keyword Tool is for, at least as far as Google is concerned. As much as SEOs like keyword data, Google isn't there to make SEOs lives easier.

Adwords advertisers might argue that we know which terms provide value, but that's a slightly different issue. Google may prefer to force more bid competition on keyword terms Google deems work best - in terms of searcher relevance, clickability, and for Google's bottom line. There's some merit in this, given their number crunching ability, although they don't have end revenue data for sites using Adwords. Well, not unless you give it to them.

There may well be bugs Google are working out, or we're seeing a a change in the PPC game - i.e. encourage advertisers towards the most profitable terms. At SES San Jose last year Google's Nicholas Fox highlighted that Google had about 30 million words in their ad auction. For advertising purposes, Google figures they do not need to give you a deep set of data, just the core relevant keywords and the ability to taste them via a broad match or phrase match AdWords campaign and refine with negative keywords.

As predicted, Google instant has had a significant impact on keyword diversity in some markets: "While organic traffic levels have risen about 5% for all Drive users since Instant was introduced, keyword variety has fallen more than 15%!"

However, there is still a big keyword tail, and the Google keyword tool is but one keyword resource. ;)

Other Ways To Research Keywords

There are many ways to discover keywords. But first, let's back up and focus on the user.

In a user-driven environment, like search, everything centers on typical user behavior, or, more specifically, what's in their head. Those who don't understand this seemingly innocuous piece of information often go wrong in SEO.

For a user to conduct search, they must already be aware of a concept. In this respect, search is reactive. It is difficult - although not impossible - to break a new idea or brand using the search channel, as the searcher isn't already aware of the new concept, therefore is unlikely to search on it. These type of "awareness generation" campaigns are generally better suited to interruption media, such as banners, videos and such.

Is your product/service/concept already known? Is it a brand? If so, it's a good candidate for search marketing. Listen to the way your customers talk. What phrases do they use? What questions do they ask? What problems do they have? Read the sites/magazines/publications they read and look for common terminology and reference points. Keep an eye on social networks and see what news they discuss. Feed all this information - the phrases, questions and terminology - back into your keyword list. Chances are, many of these terms will not appear on keyword research tools.

The next step is to consider searcher behavior.

82% of searchers will rephrase their query if they don't find what they are looking for on their first attempt. Combine this with the fact that 55% of queries use more than three terms, and a staggering 20 to 25% of the queries have never been seen before i.e. they are unique.

This means that there are many more keywords permutations than a keyword tool will ever give you.

If you focus on multiple low traffic terms, this can result in more traffic than can be gained from a single high traffic term. You can often achieve this simply by knowing the topics your audience are interested in, and writing about them. Is this SEO? Of course. Your language matches that of your intended audience.

So publish often. Each page you publish is a keyword net.

Look deep into your web analytics / log file. Use keyword terms found in your logs as topic/titles/starter ideas for new pages. Repeat indefinitely. You'll eventually build your unique own body of keyword data that people using keyword research tools are unlikely to find.

Always listen and adapt to your audience. Always listen and adapt to your site's analytics, as it is the purest (and most relevant) data you will ever get to use in your search marketing campaigns.

Free Keyword Research Tools

We're going to blow our own horn here and recommend the SEOBook keyword tool, powered by Wordtracker. It's free, and provides a lot data across various search services. The SEOBook members section has some very cool tools, too, including a Competitive Research tool based on SEMRush data. This data can list keyword value distribution i.e. keyword value * estimated traffic. Aaron did a thorough review of SEMRush here.

But enough about us.... :)

Google still offer a range of great freebie tools, including:

Google Trends

Google trends for websites

Insights for search

Google Sets

Microsoft's Ad Intelligence is too good to not mention.

Don't forget to use a Thesaurus - such as Thesaurus.com. A Thesaurus can often cough up synonyms the keyword research tools miss. Aaron has a video and a few more keyword tools listed here.

And virtually anything can be a source of data to explore

The well is deep!

There is a ton of data out there, whether Google chooses to share it or not.

The very best keyword data is seldom shared intentionally ;) though sometimes when people sell their site they do offer "free milk."

How To Spot Keyword Trends

When we launch SEO projects, we've often got one eye on the future.

We start with a site that ranks nowhere, then we build links and optimize with the expectation that a few months from now, we'll start getting rankings, and traffic. Are the keyword terms we rank for going to be worthwhile over time? Will search volumes in our niche increase? Will they decrease? Are there more lucrative niches we could target instead? What will our market be interested in this time next year? Where is our market moving?

Given that search engine ranking has a long lead time, it pays to think about keyword trends well ahead of time.

The problem with the future is that it is difficult to predict. However, spotting trends is somewhat easier, and gives us an insight into how our niche is likely to develop. Trends typically follow a gradual, predictable pattern.

Let's take a look at a few tools you can use to help spot long term keyword trends.

Trend Spotting Tools

Google Trends is a useful tool for predicting rising interest in keyword areas. Search on your keyword terms, and see if interest in your niche is rising or falling. Ideally, you want to find keyword areas that show an increasing level of interest, or areas where there is significant, steady interest over time.

Likewise, Google Insights For Search allows you to drill down into the data in a variety of ways, including by date, by region, by category and by source. The related terms section is particularly useful for getting new keyword ideas, and analyzing trends. Click the RSS icon at the bottom, and you can keep up to date with this information in your RSS Reader. I use Google's Reader.

Twitter Search is a good tool for trend spotting. Possibly the most useful aspect of Twitter, as far as the SEO is concerned, is the ease of which you can spot keyword trends in terms of everyday usage. Search for your keyword term and make a note of the words people use in conjunction with your keyword terms. In what context does your keyword appear? Integrate these words into your copy.

Also check out Twist which shows keyword trends in Twitter over time, although it is limited to the last 30 days.

Both Microsoft Ad Intelligence and Google Adwords provide seasonal trends, which is especially useful for looking at interest patterns linked to the time of year, an obvious example being gift buying at Christmas.

Paid research tools, such as Keyword Discovery, provide historical data. Also check out Compete.com and WikiRank. WikiRank shows you what people are reading on Wikipedia. It’s based on the actual usage data from the Wikipedia servers, and provides trending data.

Microsoft Bing (I can't type that name without thinking of "Friends") provides XRank, a service that gathers related trend information and presents it on the same page, although the keyword terms it shows any results for seem to be rather limited.

So the takeaway point is to look at both keyword usage volumes and keyword trends over time.

Determine your bread-and-butter terms i.e. the terms that show constant levels of traffic and construct your link building strategy around these terms. Also look at the the emerging terms in your niche i.e. the terms with a rapidly climbing trend graph. Use this trend information as a suggestion list for new article topics. Watch your stats and look for rising areas of interest. Also try looking at keyword research from the opposite direction. Spot a rising trend, then make a list of keywords suggested by that trend.

All grist for the mill :)

Related Resources

Why it Makes Sense to Target Longtail Keywords First

When launching a brand new website in a competitive marketplace you have a lot of network effects working against you. Your competition has years of conversion data, an older trusted site, tons of content, and thousands of organic inbound links. Try to beat them right from the start for the most potent high-value keywords and you will likely fail.

Any new website has opportunity cost. One of my first goals with a new site is to get it to self-sustaining while it is still growing rapidly. In doing that, I can afford to lock up that capital with no returns because I know I am buying market-share in a fairly organic manner, and few competitors will operate at that strategic level or see me coming. Whenever the site has enough exposure then advertising (and other promotional spending) can be cut as needed.

If I target the most competitive keywords first (without a strong competitive advantage - like a network of sites to build off, an old trusted website, a huge brand, or a strong domain name) then I might never get to self-sustaining. There is no award, little traffic, and virtually no value for ranking on page 2 or page 3, even if it is for an exceptionally competitive and high traffic keyword like credit cards.

Longtail keywords are easier to rank for. If you can pick off mid-tier phrases and rank at the top of the search results then you can build a revenue stream from them, which can be reinvested to further buy marketshare and distribution.

There is more value in...

  • using your core pages (and link anchor text) to target lower competition variations of your core keywords (like best credit cards or compare credit cards) rather than targeting just the core competitive keyword credit cards
  • ensuring that each particular deep page is well optimized and can pull in relevant traffic

than there is *almost* ranking for credit cards.

Core keywords require domain age, good anchor text, trusted links from a variety of sources, and perhaps links from within your topical community. It takes time to build all those external signals of quality. You can rank for longtail keywords much faster, because you control your on page optimization.

Longtail keywords have less competition, and are thus far easier to rank for, as illustrated below.

And the good news is that if you target best credit cards or compare credit cards that will help you rank for credit cards as your site gains link authority and trust in Google.

Eventually you want to rank your site for many of the most valuable phrases, but you need to build a revenue stream to support those efforts. By focusing on the second tier and third tier keywords first, you enable yourself an opportunity to earn (and buy) the exposure needed to rank for the core keywords.

This site does not rank well for SEO just because I decided to target that keyword, but because we helped create many paths into this site...which helped to build the authority of the site...which helps it rank better for the core keywords.

Creating a Sweet High Value Keyword List in 5 Minutes

Step 1: list a few core keywords

For this example we will cover hosting...so our core word list could be something like...

  • hosting
  • web hosting
  • host
  • web host
  • server
  • dedicated
  • vps

This need not be perfect or exhaustive, as this is just a seeding list to pull deeper keywords.

Step 2: Google's Search-based Keyword Tool

Use the Google Search-based keyword tool. Make sure you are not logged into your Google Account, or they might show partial matches based on your sites.

Since hosting is a high value field we can build a list of keywords that are selling for $1 or more by using the advanced filters. For lower value fields there is no need to use a price filter.

Enter each keyword here and export the top 800 keywords from each list. If Google shows less than 800 keywords you only need to export 1 list.

If they allow you to export exactly 800 keywords you can use the keyword competition level as another filter to allow you to break the list down into two smaller lists that can be exported. Using negative keywords (ie: hosting - web) can also help you dig deeper.

If some services (like fax servers and email hosting) do not fit your business model then you can add them as negative words to help the tool return fewer irrelevant keywords and more relevant keywords.

Step 3: In Excel Combine & Sort Data

Delete the unneeded columns (everything but keyword, click price, and search volume - optionally you may want to keep keyword competition level as well).

  1. Copy and paste all the lists into 1 Excel spreadsheet.
  2. Once you have that list add a column that uses the equation click price * estimated monthly search volume.
  3. Sort your list by keyword value
  4. Use the de-duplication tool to remove duplicate data.
  5. Filter irrelevant keywords by hand, and/or remove rows containing x (ie: where x is the word free, or email, or some type of hosting/server you have no interest in providing).
  6. Cut off the bottom of the combined list. Decide to set a lower threshold based on how large of a site you want to build, how rapidly the keyword values fall off.

As an example, here is a list of ~ 4,000 hosting related keywords, but please note I did not filter out the various irrelevant stuff like free, because for some hosting business models maybe they rely on pitching free hosting and then selling upgrades.

Step 4: Map Out Keywords Against Your Site Structure

Essentially you want to cluster relevant keyword groups together and try to map them out against your site structure, planning out page titles, URLs, on page H1 headings, meta description tags, and internal anchor text.

We have an example of how to do this inside the site architecture section of our training program.

Visualize the Process

There are other tools similar to the Google Search-based keyword tool (like Microsoft Ad Intelligence). You may want to watch these videos if you need help visualizing the process.

Bonus Steps

Disclaimer: The above strategy relies on pulling keywords from an ad network. It will thus have a commercial focus and a bias toward high search volume keywords. If you want non-commercial keywords then using a variety of keyword tools and/or focus the above method on grabbing some keywords with low bid prices as well.

Here are 7 quick ways to expand your keyword strategy

  1. If you have an established website with significant web traffic you can look at your analytics data for additional keywords and keyword modifier ideas.
  2. Track industry news, blogs, and forums to see what people are talking about. Conversation creates search demand.
  3. Use keyword suggestion tools built into browsers and search toolbars, and visual keyword cloud tools like Quintura to come up with additional keyword ideas.
  4. Put competing sites through SEM Rush (and other competitive research tools if you like) to find additional valuable keywords competing sites rank for.
  5. If you are creating an affiliate or review site make sure to hunt down leading brands to review. Much of this word can be done through choosing good competing sites to draw keywords from in competitive research tools.
  6. Find category based keywords using Microsoft Ad Intelligence.
  7. If you are advertising on AdWords you can login to your Google account then use the Google Search-based Keyword Tool and they will show you a list of up to thousands of additional keywords they think you should advertise for (one list a friend showed me had over 6,000 keywords in it).

Bonus keyword tip: read the kick ass keyword strategies guide. At $39, it will probably be your highest ROI marketing spend in 2009.

[Update: here is a follow up thread for paying subscribers]

Keyword Research Strategy Flowchart

PeterD and I recently put together the Keyword Research Flowchart. Interactive image below, with a larger image here and a downloadable PDF also available.

We hope you find it as valuable as we found it fun to make, and your feedback is appreciated. :)

 

Subscribers may also access our new AdSense and SEO analytics flowcharts.

Market Research Using Google Adwords

Earn $100,000 per day!

Only two minutes work a year!

I'm a complete idiot, and if I can do it, anyone can!

If you've ever researched making money online, no doubt you've heard the above pitch. We all know the pitch is nonsense, of course. If these guys really were hitting the numbers they claim, then you've got to wonder why they are selling their "secrets" for $97?

Perhaps it is true.

Perhaps they really are idiots :)

However, the reality is that making money online is the same as making money offline. You need to find a market opportunity and fill it.

And that takes work.

I'd like to share a few ideas on research potential markets, and how you can use search engines to help you.

Definition Of Market Research

Market research is the study of groups of people in order to determine if there is a market for your product or service.

One of the biggest mistakes entrepreneurs often make is to attempt to solve a non-problem. The TechCrunch dead-pool is littered with examples of solutions to non-problems. An idea might sound good. Your family and friends might agree it is good. But is it really? How can you really know?

By spending a little time finding out if your idea solves a real problem, as opposed to an imaginary one, you can save yourself a lot of time, effort, pain and money later on.

But how do you undertake market research on a limted budget?

Use Search As A Market Research Tool

Search marketers have an ace up their sleeves that most people just don't see. One of the valuable most valuable market research tools available costs very little: Google Adwords.

Google Adwords provides you with a wealth of data. You can measure actual visitor interest - real search numbers, not just estimates - and you can quickly and easily test your ideas in the live marketplace. You can test your product or service offer, even before you're ready to provide it!.

Once you've gathered this valuable data, and found that your idea works, you can then design your time-consuming SEO strategy.

Sounds easy, right?

Well, it is. But there is a little work involved.

What we need to do is take a few important measurements.

1. Keyword Research

You can use the Adwords KeyWord Tool, or other keyword research tools. Here's a free keyword research tool from SEOBook. Include every keyword term in your Adwords campaign that you expect to rank for in your organic campaign.

2. Construct a small site consisting of landing pages.

You can test the effectiveness of each landing page using a/b testing, but this would probably over-complicate matters at this stage. What you want to know are three key pieces of information: actual search volume, response to offer, and competition levels.

  • Search volume is the number of people who search on a certain term. The actual search volume, as opposed to estimates.
  • Response to offer is the number of people who take a desired action, not those who click back.
  • Competition level is the level of advertisers competition.

If the search volume is sufficient to achieve your goals, then you're part way there. If not, you might to to rework your idea, but at least you haven't undertaken a time consuming SEO campaign only to find this out there is no real traffic.

Once a visitor lands on your page, you want to measure their level of interest in your offer. How many buyers are you likely to get vs tire kickers? Prompt the visitor to take an action that would indicate that they would buy your service or product. For example, you could send them to an affiliate program offering a similar service or product, and measure your success rates, or collect the visitors email address as an expression of interest. Those who click back are telling you your offer is quite right.

3. Evaluate Competition Levels

You can gain an understanding of the competition levels by looking at the bid price. Obviously, the higher the bid prices, the higher the level of competition. If you're failing to get on the front page with reasonable relevancy and bids, you're in a fairly competitive area, and the SERPs will be likewise.

Let's say you've got all three ducks lined up. Great. You now have some fantastic market research data that you can build into your site and into your SEO campaign. Most offline market researchers would kill to be able to get this lucrative data so easily and cheaply.

Other Useful Market Research Tools

Google Trends

Google Trends shows trends in searches over time. You want to find terms that are becoming increasingly popular. You can then optimize for these terms, and enjoy the rising traffic levels.

Google Traffic Estimator

Google Traffic Estimator helps you see how often your ads would appear for keywords, and gives you approximate prices. It works for various match types, including broad match, phrase match and exact match. Here's some information on why understanding match types is important.

Microsoft Ad Intelligence

Various metrics tools, including a cool Excel Plug in. To see a demonstration of how to use this, check out Aaron's video: Top Paying AdSense Keyword Lists Video. Ad Intelligence gives you actual search data, not rough estimates.

Google Insights For Search

Google Insights will show you where search activity is taking place at different periods of time. This is especially useful for honing local and regional offers. It is also useful for time-based research, such as Christmas and Thanksgiving and other vacation periods.

TwitScoop

Twitscoop monitors the hottest topics on Twitter. It also monitors hot trends across the network. Try contrasting this information with Digg.

DiggLabs DigSpy

I use Digg BigSpy as my screensaver. It's mesmerising to watch the river of news drift past, and helps keep you current on trends and news.

Compete

Compete helps you estimate the traffic of your competition. You can compare your competition against each other to see who is getting the real traffic.

Further Reading:

How To Craft Kick-Ass Title Tags & Headlines

Headlines

One old-skool marketing technique that will always hold true is the value of the catchy headline.

The headline, given its power to convey meaning quickly, is more important than ever. Attention spans are limited. Media messages flood the channels. We're busy. The function of the headline is to grab our attention and pull us deeper into the message.

Many books have been written on how to craft great headlines. I'm going to quote from the advertisers bible on the topic, Tested Adverting Methods by John Caples. Caples identifies three main classes of successful headlines.

The Three Main Classes Of Successful Headlines

  • Self-Interest: The best headlines are those that appeal to self interest. They offer the reader benefits that they want, and they can get from you. For example, RETIRE AT 30
  • News - Humans are pre-disposed to seek out what is new and different in their environment. For example, NEW, CHEAPER IPHONE CALL PLANS RELEASED
  • Curiosity Appeal to our curious nature. LOST: $1 BILLION DOLLARS

Of the three, by far the most effective headline in advertising is the self interest headline. Our self interest usually trumps our curiosity, and news, especially when time is short.

Compare these two headlines:

PUT UP OR SHUT UP

FIVE TOTALLY NEW WAYS TO GET TOP RANKING IN GOOGLE

The first says nothing that appeals to our self interest. We don't even know what it is about. But you'd be hard pressed not to click on the second headline. The self-interest is just too strong. This is why the second form is used so often in link-baiting and social media. It screams for attention, and then makes a strong appeal to self-interest.

There is a downside to such headlines, however. Modern audiences have become jaded and cynical, especially where marketing messages are concerned. Overplay the benefit, and you'll come off as a shark. Link-baiting, a useful SEO tactic, has developed a bad reputation through overuse of this approach.

Eventually, people tune out.

Get Your Tone Right

We can twist the overused appeal-to-self interest headline strategy slightly to make it work for us. The key to getting the appeal to self-interest right is to get the tone right. Understand both the audiences' desires and the tone of "voice" they respond to.

For example, look at Digg. A cynic might argue that a surefire way to get top page on Digg is to write a headline that includes the following subject matter, and do so using an irreverent tone:

  • Criticism of Bush
  • Anything about Digg itself
  • Pumping Linux
  • Dumping DRM
  • Some crazy-weird activity from a country no-one has ever heard of :)

By the way, if anyone can come up with a headline that includes one of those elements, feel free to add it to the comments :)

The headline needs to be crafted in such a way as to appeal to Diggs demographic, which is mostly young, tech-savvy males. This demographic tends to respond to a tone that is cynical, flippant and irreverent. Get that tone wrong - i.e. play it too straight, or too advertorial - and it doesn't matter how strong the self-interest angle, it's unlikely to work.

How To Use Headline Strategy In SEO.

SEO has an additional challenge.

For SEO to work well, the headline, which is often also used as the title tag, should include a keyword term. Many studies have shown that a SERP or Adword that includes the keyword term results in more clicks. In order to get the headline strategy to work for SEO, try amalgamating the keyword term with one of the three formats.

For example, where the keyword term is "high speed routers", try:

  • High Speed Routers- How To Get Routers At Half Price (appeal to self interest)
  • High Speed Routers- Latest Features To Insist On (news, with a hint of self interest)
  • High Speed Routers- How We Blew Our Budget (Curiosity)

Even if you're not #1 in the serps for that term, you're more likely to attract a click than the guy who simply uses "High Speed Routers", by itself.

Your headline (i.e. the title tag) competes with at least ten other SERPs on the page, along with a various Adwords listings along the top and down the side. The top three SERP poitions are gold, but if you can add a touch of appeal-to-self-interest, or news, or curiosity, you'll up your chances of getting the click.

If you want to go one step further with this tactic, use it as a way to segment visitors. The first example I gave is likely to attract those people who are ready to buy, and who are buying on price.

You then need to include your title as a heading on the page, which confirms to they visitor their click has got them where they wanted to be. They're now far more likely to read beyond the headline.

Further Reading:

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