I have seen roughly the same figures and I used data from Neilsen and a model based off of the iProspect study (weighted 60% Neilsen and 40% iProspect). Makes a good case for #1. I have also started focusing harder on putting top 5 keywords into the #1 spot instead of just trying to "show up."
Clickthrough Rate by Search Result Ranking Position
AOL has a bias toward consumer (ie: non b2b) type queries, and they may have a higher % of brand related searches that both act to place a bit more emphasis on the top search result than general searchers from other search engines, but some people have dug through the 20 million search queries AOL gave away and come up some stats.
SEO Blackhat dug through the numbers and has a free tool for estimating clicks based on search volume estimates and rank position.
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Oh...and I got the Neilsen numbers from his "Prioritizing Usability Book." He just gives CTR's of rank 1-10 w/ 51% at the top spot.
their numbers reinforced what i'm pitching to my clients about the importance of being rank #1 versus rank #10 in terms of potential clicks. my rule of thumb was 10X. the numbers show 42% versus 3%...
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