Fraudster Christopher Angus discusses hypothetical backtesting algorithms while he steals investor money

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Video Background

Convicted frauds and self-confessed criminal Christopher Angus is kicking off a confidence series, providing free video tutorials on how to defraud investors. This fifth video is 15:04 & was shared on April 20, 2016. The criminal who shot these videos delivered over a 99% investment loss, as he simply stole the money and integrated it into other investment scams abroad.
https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18263036.christopher-angus-jailed-fraud-friend-philippines/
Crown Police never followed the money trail.

Christopher Angus is associated with Stella Huh and Timothy Barton, who stand trial in the United States on November 2, 2026.
http://www.seobook.com/stella-huh/criminal-case-docket-sheet%204-22-2026-(22-cr-00352).pdf

Video Highlights

• 1 minute 20 seconds: talks about algorithm he wrote on the ninja trader platform. it went from close to zero to around a million in about 6 years.
• 3 minutes 30 seconds: talks about the VIX being around 13 being really low and how it most recently happened ahead of a crash & usually preceeded a crash like the crash of 2008.
• 7 minutes 15 seconds: starts sounding almost emotional when talking about how low VIX is on the back of poor earnings near record stock highs, sounds frustrated that share buybacks were driving the "hollow" stock market higher.
• 10 minutes 25 seconds: doesn't care if is right or wrong with preconceived outcomes. only goes with what he sees in the market & doesn't carry emotional baggage.

A version of this video is available for download at
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4nv783lgh0po1eh/video%204%202016%20apr%2020.fl...

Video Transcript

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00:53 Christopher Angus: And listening to fucking... All that shit going on. At 9 o'clock, I just wanna get away. So I'd much prefer doing the reports the next day actually because I've got a fresh mind and I'm in a good mood. So I hope you'll be okay with that. I'm sure you will. Anyway, so I've gotta a couple of things I wanna show you today. And that is, one, just this is out of interest, this is an algorithm I wrote on a platform called NinjaTrader, which is a retail platform. It's, so to say, 50% for normal trading, 50% for algorithmic trading. Also, you can write plugins for it, you can buy plugins. It's a really versatile platform, very open platform. It's not open source, but it's an open platform, and there's like thousands of developers that write stuff for it and so on. All plugins.

01:43 Christopher Angus: Anyway, that's something I wrote several years ago. Several in England, by the way, means two, not seven or six. Just one of the English quirks. So I wrote this... And it says the sixth of the six, 2014. And back-tested it. Might be some curve footing going on here, but this went from zero to about a million in about six years, so not bad. Well, I guess that's like maybe 12% compounding a year. Not bad, especially when you say it's algorithmic. Not fucking amazing either, to be honest, but you don't have to touch this. This wasn't touched. And you can see, I mean, that went kinda well with hardly any crazy draw down periods. There's just a nice 45 degree angle, which is always what you wanna see when you're seeing profit and loss. If you see massive fucking swings up or down, you know you've got some major issues going on. If it went up to like 400k, and then... Even like even a swing up to 400k would have got... Is concerning. You don't wanna see big swings up or down. Anyway, that's from an angle point of view at least, that's a beautiful angle. It's all I wanna say.

03:05 Christopher Angus: Next on the matter is you asked me the other day about the VIX and will volatility pick up. The short answer is, I don't know, obviously, because I don't know anything about the future. But I can tell you that when volatility is very, very low, like it is now, it is fucking incredibly low, excuse my French there. But it's... Like, I had to go back through my records to actually see when the last time it was this low, and for the VIX futures to be around 13, this doesn't happen very often. I think the last time this happened was last year, just before the super crash in August, and then the time before that was just before the crash in 2008. So this is... It's not really a thesis, it's just the way it is. Basically, when the VIX futures go very low. So let's pretend that this was November last year. The VIX futures were around 15, 16, something like that, and it was just bouncing off the bottom and kind of doing that. But, end of the year, this concern for China picked up, etcetera and you saw this incredible crash in the markets where the S&P was 300 points further away than it is now, which is a bit nuts. The S&P is at 2100 at the moment and it got down to 1820. So that's what's 280 points.

04:55 Christopher Angus: So when the S&P is high... I mean, you know this, but when... The reason I'm telling you this is because when volatility is extremely low, which it is now, you usually... Well, you know that something is going to happen imminently. So you said, "Well, is it gonna be like this for like another year?" But categorically not. I think, at some point in the next couple of months, something's gonna really fucking kick off, and around... When did we... When did we start? Like February. Yeah. So we were making a lot of money just around here and all the way back down again, and it's only once volatility started bottoming again, that's when we started having a bit of a hard time, because once it gets down here, I'm disinclined to try and sell it, which obviously, we were up here.

05:54 Christopher Angus: However to sum this up, the point I'm trying to make is when volatility is very, very low that is the time to buy volatility, at least with a medium to long-term outlook. Of course, we're in and out the market the same day. Like I would never ever hold a sale position over night now. Never ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever. Because you don't know when that crash is coming, if I'm sitting here, you know, it's fine I'll take it off. But volatility... The point to sum this up for the fucking sixth time, there is an increase in volatility coming not because I know there is one, because I don't, but based on everything I know, every time volatility gets extremely low and like I can't emphasize how low this actually... How low volatility is. This is like happens like once every couple of years low, right? And you... And once that happens, everyone becomes complacent, everyone starts taking fucking tons of risk, all the stupid retail equity traders are back in and they're fucking buying the market, buying the market, buying the market.

07:02 Christopher Angus: They don't know they're climbing the wall of worry. I mean we're only 40 points off the record high on the S&P now, less than 400 points off the Dow high, intraday high, not even the closing high, intraday high. These are record fucking highs, on the back of poor earnings and a bunch of other bullshit that's going on. Like it's just like mind-bogglingly insane, where companies have been... Where the stock market has been after massive breakdown then a tear up of like 15%. The only reason the mark was supported is by share buy backs by the big equity companies, by the big companies, I mean. And everyone's like cheering, like this is the most hollow, fragile rally I think I've ever seen, since I've been watching the markets which is like over five years. It is like nuts. You have to be so fucking crazy to be long in the market now. Anyway, enough of the fucking little rants, I just had there, sorry about that.

08:03 Christopher Angus: So this will happen, and this won't happen... This will happen in the next few months. It's kind of picking up a little, actually. But you see I'm managing to make some money because it isn't just... It isn't just coming down, down, down, down, down. It's starting to pick... The volatility is picking up. So I reckon we are somewhere around here now. And over the next few months, volatility is gonna rise, and we're gonna have a good, good, good few months. And then once it starts topping again, like things will slow down because I'm not gonna want to sell it until I know that we're back on the down one, on the down trend again, in terms of volatility. So the S&P is doing the opposite. So at the moment the S&P is flying up. You just turn this thing on its head. And that's kind of it for the day.

09:09 Christopher Angus: Expectations for the day. I am a little unsure. Well, I'm pretty unsure. However, I would say that we're probably going to see an up day on the S&P. So that's my forecast. Yesterday, we saw a down day, so to speak, we closed lower than where we opened. And I said to you... I was pretty sure we would've seen a pull back from wherever we were in the video, which was over 2100 to below 2095, which we saw, we saw it go back to 2091. So that... So it was just a little slow. And today, we are at 2097 currently. I expect us to go over, I'm gonna write this down, 2100, and probably stay there once the market has settled down. I could be wrong, I could be right. I don't give a shit, I don't need to be wrong or right, I can make money either way. Also, I don't have any emotional attachment to being right, I don't need to prove anything. And that's the main thing. I don't need to prove anything to myself, I don't care if I'm wrong, I just go with what I see. But my general expectation today is that we will see the markets probably get over 2100 at some point. If it sticks, fine, if it doesn't, better for us, but that's kind of my feeling.

11:04 Christopher Angus: It's 11 o'clock in the morning, it's still very early, I've not even fired up Bloomberg. I've only just looked at the price action and what Treasuries and so on are doing. Treasuries are actually way up. But this is the thing... I'm gonna end off on this because yesterday's video was 40 minutes. I thought it felt like seven when it was like 40. Treasuries were way, way, way up this morning, and the market had come off a little, but it's not about, treasuries are up, what's the dollar do? Is the dollar down? That's definitely the sign, that's the way forward. That's definitely not the way forward. What you need to know is what's happening relative to the... To... Well what... Sorry, how the markets are behaving relative to each other at the time. Because if the markets are starting to move against each other, which they do obviously, they're inversely correlated. Then basically, even though Treasuries are up, you need to be aware that they're falling, and how they're falling relative to the S&P.

12:23 Christopher Angus: So I said I was gonna finish but I just wanna see whether I can... I'm just looking on the other screen here just to see whether I can show you what I mean. Bear with me.

[pause]

13:00 Christopher Angus: One more second please sir. Uno memento por favor.

13:15 Christopher Angus: What is that? It's our Treasuries. I'm just gonna see if I can lay this over. No, I can't. Fuck. Right. I'll have to show you another day. I don't want this video to go on too long.

13:36 Christopher Angus: But that's kind of my forecast for the day, that we'll see somewhat of an up day. Although, I have to say my level of confidence isn't particularly high. It's like the markets are just kind of moving around, Treasuries are up, now they're down... Coming off and market was up, and market was down, and then it's up. And you know, so, but my general feeling... If you had to say balance of probability, one being the markets are gonna crash and I know it, and 10 being markets are gonna rally hard. I'm probably at about a six where I just feel that we have some upward momentum. Again, just from what I see. I see the price action. I see the dollar coming off a little. I see the Treasuries coming off a little. And I look at what's going on with the other indexes. And with that limited amount of information, before I started looking at anything else this morning, my thoughts are that the market will probably make a small rally today and will, at some point, be higher than we were yesterday.

14:53 Christopher Angus: So that's it for today. I'll do the sheet just after the start of the upload of this video and catch you on Skype in a bit. Bye for now.